Not So Rosy CIA Says Iran Can Survive Blockade for Months Directly Contradicting Trumps Claims of Collapse

The article reports a classified CIA assessment contradicting Trump's claims of Iran's imminent collapse under a U.S. naval blockade. The mechanism is supply_shortage and regulatory (sanctions/blockade) affecting global oil supply. Iran's ability to withstand blockade for months implies continued but reduced oil exports, keeping global supply tighter than if collapse were imminent. The impact is global on crude oil prices, with regional focus on Middle East and EM markets. Direct winners/losers: net oil importers face higher prices; Iran's resilience reduces immediate supply shock but prolongs uncertainty.