A Very Good Environment for Risk Assets or an Utterly Terrible One Why the Oil Shock Might Have More in Store for Stocks

The attack on Iran and Strait of Hormuz closure create a supply shock for crude oil, directly impacting global oil prices and refining margins. The inventory drawdown (from 8.4B to below 7.9B barrels) signals scarcity, with potential pass-through to fuel costs for airlines and logistics. The Fed's inflation challenge may tighten monetary policy, strengthening USD and pressuring EM currencies. Winners: oil producers (higher prices). Losers: net importers, airlines, shipping lines (higher fuel costs). Impact is global but acute for regions dependent on Gulf oil.