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The Iran conflict has caused a supply disruption in global oil markets, leading to a 50% increase in gasoline and a doubling of aviation gas prices in the US. Damaged infrastructure and prolonged recovery (IEA estimates 2 years) create sustained upward pressure on crude and refined product prices. The channel is supply_shortage and input_cost for US consumers and industries. Impact is global but particularly acute in the US due to domestic price passthrough. Winners: US oil producers (higher prices). Losers: airlines (aviation fuel cost), refiners (margin squeeze if crude rises faster than products), and consumers.