Gente Grande Ainda Acredita Que a Crise Do Petroleo Vai Ser Feia

The ongoing conflict is expected to push Brent crude oil prices up 3-5% in the short term and 5-10% in the mid-term, while EM markets face currency depreciation and growth downgrades. Key risk: if strategic reserves are released or demand destruction occurs, it could limit price increases and economic impacts.

The ongoing war has disrupted 13% of global daily oil supply, creating a supply shortage. Oil prices are 25% above February levels, and declining stocks are exacerbated by high summer fuel consumption. This is an input_cost and supply_shortage channel for oil-importing countries and energy-dependent industries. The impact is global but particularly severe for net oil importers in emerging markets facing higher inflation and interest rates.