Trump Says Iran Peace Deal Largely Negotiated

The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would remove a major supply disruption for global oil and LNG flows, reducing freight and insurance premiums. The channel is supply_shortage relief: if the strait reopens, oil and gas supply from the Persian Gulf increases, lowering prices. Impact is global but strongest for crude oil and LNG markets. Winners: net oil importers (e.g., Asian refiners, European utilities). Losers: alternative suppliers (e.g., US shale, Russian oil) may face price pressure. However, Iranian sources dispute the claim, and the deal is not finalized, so the mechanism is weak and uncertain.