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how are prediction markets like polymarket more accurate than wall street analysts

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AI insight
AI-generatedThe article highlights the accuracy of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi in forecasting corporate earnings, surpassing Wall Street analysts. This suggests a potential shift in how investors and analysts gather information, possibly impacting demand for traditional analyst services and increasing interest in prediction market platforms. The commercial mechanism is weak and indirect: it may affect asset managers' reliance on analyst reports and could drive investment into prediction market companies. No direct product/commodity price impact, scarcity, or margin squeeze is identified.
Signals our AI researcher identified
Extracted by our AI model from this article and related public sources β not direct quotes from the publisher.
- Prediction markets correctly predict 78% of outcomes vs 62% for Wall Street analysts.
- Trading volume surged 130-fold from 2024 to 2025, reaching $13 billion.
- Polymarket valued at $9 billion, Kalshi at $11 billion by end of 2025.
Over 2-4 weeks, asset managers may reduce spending on traditional analyst services, pressuring margins.
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