uaes opec exit higher oil risks

The UAE's OPEC exit is a supply-side event that increases the risk of higher oil prices and volatility. The direct commercial mechanism is a potential supply increase from the UAE (from 3.4 to 5 mbpd), which could lower prices, but the exit also signals OPEC's weakening discipline, potentially leading to a price war. For net importers like India, higher oil prices would raise fuel costs and inflation, squeezing margins for refiners and consumers. The channel is supply_shortage (if OPEC discipline collapses) or demand_spike (if prices rise due to uncertainty). The impact is global but especially acute for EM oil importers.