Iran Losing Friends Due to Maximalist Posturing

The article describes Iran's confrontational stance in the Persian Gulf, threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil and LNG. This creates supply disruption risk for crude oil, refined products, LNG, and fertilizer feedstocks (e.g., ammonia). Developing countries are most exposed to price spikes. The channel is supply_shortage and logistics, with potential for demand_spike in alternative routes. Impact is global but particularly severe for EM importers. Winners: alternative energy exporters, shipping companies with non-Gulf routes. Losers: net oil/fertilizer importers, Gulf-dependent refiners.