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Coal’s new world order takes shape
Executive Summary
AI-generatedThe global coal trade is undergoing a significant restructuring, with Indonesian exports declining sharply while shipments from Australia and Southern Africa are increasing. Despite a modest overall market growth forecast, regional demand is becoming fractured, notably as India increases its reliance on domestic coal production.
Key Insights
- Overall seaborne coal trade is projected to increase by only 1% in 2026, reaching 1.343 billion tonnes.
- Indonesian coal exports are projected to fall 6%, a trend already confirmed by an 8% year-on-year decline in shipments during the first ten months.
- Southern African and Mozambican steam coal exports reached a ten-year high during the January-October period.
- Indian coal imports are declining despite rising electricity generation, driven by greater reliance on domestic coal and stock drawdowns.
- The Middle East energy crisis has prompted increased coal-fired generation in parts of Europe and Northeast Asia due to tightening LNG supplies.
Topic context
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