Weaponizing Supply Chains Iran and China Strategic Food Insecurity

Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure and China's fertilizer export restrictions create a dual supply shock. The Strait handles ~1/3 of global seaborne fertilizer trade; China's restrictions affect up to 40M metric tons of NPK blends. This directly raises fertilizer input costs for farmers globally, squeezing agricultural margins and threatening crop yields. The channel is supply_shortage for fertilizers, leading to demand_spike for alternative nutrients and potential substitute_pressure. Impact is global but particularly acute for import-dependent regions (e.g., South Asia, Africa).