trump says iran ceasefire is on life support as hopes for a deal fade

The potential collapse of the Iran ceasefire threatens to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil supply. This creates a supply shortage risk for crude oil, directly impacting Brent prices and refining margins globally. The channel is supply_shortage and logistics (strait transit). Impact is global but especially acute for Asian and European importers reliant on Middle Eastern crude. Winners: alternative crude suppliers (US shale, Russia, North Sea). Losers: Iranian export-dependent buyers, refiners with high Middle East crude exposure.