Turkey Unprecedented Political Crisis Erdogans Move to Oust Ozgur Ozel Economic Fallout

Political instability in Turkey is likely to lead to a short-term sell-off in the Turkish Lira and BIST 100 index, with a potential 1-3% depreciation in the next 48 hours. Key risk: if the government signals policy continuity or foreign governments remain passive, the sell-off may be less severe.

The political crisis in Turkey creates uncertainty for Turkish assets (TRY, equities, bonds). The mechanism is regulatory/political risk channel: foreign investor confidence may weaken, leading to capital outflows and FX pressure. No direct commodity or supply-chain impact is identified; the effect is country-specific macro risk.