Saudi Arabia UAE carried secret revenge attacks Iran Tehran pounded oil gas facilities war Middle East

Direct military strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure (Lavan Island refinery) and Saudi airstrikes on Iranian soil create immediate supply disruption risk for Iranian crude and refined products. The channel is supply_shortage and geopolitical risk premium. Impact is region-specific (Middle East) but with global oil price implications due to Iran's ~2.5 million bpd exports. Winners: non-Iranian oil producers (Saudi, UAE, US shale) if prices spike; losers: Iranian oil revenue, global refiners dependent on Iranian crude. Margin squeeze for Iranian oil sector; potential margin expansion for other OPEC+ producers if they increase output.