Reserve Bank Warns of 90s Recession

The Reserve Bank's recession warning is triggered by rising oil prices, which act as an input cost shock for net oil importers and a demand risk for global growth. The channel is input_cost (higher energy costs squeeze margins and consumer spending) and demand_spike (oil price rise itself). Impact is global but particularly severe for emerging markets with high energy import dependence and poverty vulnerability. No specific companies or products are named; the mechanism is generic macro risk.